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  • Annual sales driving Big Box (JWN, TGT, WMT) +5% YoY – a +6% increase from June.
  • Consumer ‘trading down’ driving Dollar Stores (+18% YoY), eCommerce (+111% YoY) – where PDD’s Temu is the performance outlier. e.l.f. Beauty (ELF) record earnings last week is an additional proof point for the consumer interest in low cost alternatives, or “dupes”.
  • PTON app growth – driven by new, free content not new hardware customers – is behind Health & Wellness strength (+94% YoY).

On average, retail app user acquisition is lagging. Along with travel and entertainment, retail sector growth has slowed each month since April. The performance outliers are powered by free offers (Peloton) or low cost goods (Temu).

Behind the performance outliers, Big Box retail apps and Dollar Store apps lead. Dollar Store (DG) app growth grows in conjunction with consumer interest in shopping low cost on Temu or SHEIN.

Big Box retail app growth inflected positive in July thanks to annual sales. Target (TGT) and Walmart (WMT) hosted sales the week of Prime Days to compete with Amazon (AMZN) share of wallet. Target Circle Week grew downloads +48% month-over-month, +7% YoY. Comparatively, Walmart Plus Week boosted installs +11% MoM, +12% YoY. Nordstrom’s (JWN) annual anniversary sale attracted +82% increase in downloads MoM but it was a drop of -19% YoY.

As we head into retail earnings, the bottom line is that discounts are driving the pockets of consumer strength in retail. Learn more about how retailers like Temu and Amazon compete for market share as consumers shift preference to ultra low cost goods.

Case Study: Temu makes inroads into Amazon’s user base