Last week we wrote about sports betting apps reversing a seasonal lull this year due to the World Cup. That data was through June 15th. A week later, the prediction market apps of Kalshi and Polymarket have continued to sustain their mobile app DAU growth while the sportsbooks have come off their highs.
Since June 1st, Kalshi has grown DAUs 146% and Polymarket is just 10 points behind it. Caesars Sportsbook [NASDAQ: CZR] is the app with the least growth and it still rang up 43% growth, hitting a high of 57% on June 15th. Kalshi has really started to dominate the share of new users. Through the 15th, it sat at 42% of sportsbook and prediction market downloads. It has now grown to 47%.
It is my personal theory that most people betting on sports with prediction markets are newer to sports betting. It’s easier to click “Yes” or “No” to simple questions that to try and understand the breadth of different types of bets available on a sportsbook. Apptopia data shows that in Q1 2026, roughly 80% of Kalshi users have never used a sportsbook app. Still, I do believe prediction markets will likely act as a feeder system for sportsbooks as some users start to have fun and crave more from their sports betting experience. While competitors, Kalshi and Polymarket are likely going to expand the total addressable market for sportsbooks more easily than they could themselves, and they will likely benefit downstream over time.
