Key Takeaways:
- DraftKings is the only OSB app to grow DAUs year-over-year this NFL season
- Kalshi now has more DAUs than DraftKings and FanDuel combined
- Polymarket has increased its DAU market share 112% year-over-year
Through the first five weeks of the NFL season, US DAUs of the top OSB apps are tracking slightly below numbers from 2025. The first week of the 2026 season was the strongest opening of the three (2.04M average DAU), but 2026 did not have a second-week surge like 2025 (2.19M in week 2) did. It’s tracked slightly below on average since then.
The 2026 numbers would be even worse if it wasn’t for DraftKings [DKNG]. Its September US DAU is up 33% Y/Y while the other seven apps have negative growth. It’s a similar story in October so far, with DraftKings being up 42%. FanDuel [FLUT] is down 14% in September and 10% in October. You can see this play out more clearly in DKNG’s land grab of market share below, last quarter. Penn Entertainment’s theScore [PENN] has all but disappeared from the market.
Looking at prediction markets, it is even more of a two horse race than the OSB market is. Kalshi continues to dominate share with 65%, but Polymarket has grown its share by 112% Y/Y in Q3. Novig, the company behind the controversial Sydney Sweeney ad campaign, has grown its DAU 62% throughout the 2026 calendar year while its share has dwindled. It still leads Fanatics Markets, ProphetX, and the standalone DraftKings and FanDuel apps.
Taking one step back to look at the larger overall market share, we see prediction market DAUs growing tremendously over the past year. So far in October, Kalshi alone has more US DAUs than DraftKings + FanDuel combined.
The OSB apps are much more mature than the PM apps at this point in time which means we expect to see more focus on new user acquisition. The below chart shows the vast majority of Kalshi and Polymarket users are new, and that percentage is only increasing.
The most commonly asked questions we get revolve around the competitive threat PMs pose to OSBs and how usage of Kalshi differs in states where online sports betting is legal compared to states where it is not. We’ve provided insights into both of these topics in previous posts.
We’ll continue to monitor the space across major events, developing state regulations, and as we see inflections in the data.
