This was first published on January 15th in our weekly newsletter Apptopia Insight. To receive insights like this weekly, sign up here.
- MTCH: Gen Z swipes right
- SOFI: User engagement returns to YoY growth
- W: New users disappoint
Our 4Q25 earnings previews are here! Please feel free to reach out and discuss any of the 20+ stocks we provide a preview on. Below are a few notable stocks from our perspective. Note also below some forecasts for SOFI and W from our partners at Maiden Century!
MTCH: User growth and engagement improved in 4Q25. I suppose one outcome of a few quarters of weak results is that when the bounce comes, it can be big! Our data showed +40% YoY growth in app downloads for Tinder worldwide in 4Q25. However, this growth was heavily skewed towards APAC. If we look at just North America, downloads are still negative YoY, but there is sequential improvement:
More interesting, however, is the improvement in user engagement in Gen Z. Tinder saw Gen Z users increase their average time spent per day by 14% YoY in 4Q25 compared with 5% for all users of Tinder.
This combination of less-bad app downloads and rising engagement points to a better-than-expected outcome for Tinder Payers in 4Q25.
SOFI: We previewed a strong quarter for SOFI a month ago. While DAU growth cooled slightly at the end of the quarter, leading to a slight deceleration in DAU growth in 4Q25, downloads growth showed another quarter of acceleration:
Meanwhile, user engagement improved for SoFi, as time spent per day rose +6% YoY after negative growth the previous two quarters:
Growth in new users and greater engagement is leading to mobile data appearing stronger than what the market expects. Just ask our partner Maiden Century:
W: Wayfair presents an interesting use case for app data. Usually people do not buy new furniture on an app! However, they will use the app to track their new purchase once it is made. Hence, Apptopia data does a good job of tracking Orders Delivered, and this quarter, things are looking a little worse than what the market expects. Weakness is mainly driven by a YoY decline in downloads:
Once again, our friends at Maiden Century have made a specific forecast for Orders Delivered using Apptopia’s data. Their forecast for YoY growth is coming in below what the market expects:
Please let us know if you have any specific stocks you want to discuss before earnings season gets fully under way!
