Key Takeaways:
- Dutch Bros daily active users fell Q/Q for the first time since Q4 2023
- Dutch Bros DAUs are up 33% Y/Y in Q3 2026
- Starbucks downloads are pacing up 3% M/M in September after the Pumpkin Spice Latte’s August 25 return
- Dunkin’ downloads are pacing toward their softest month since May 2020
Pumpkin spice season is here at all three chains. Starbucks [SBUX] brought the Pumpkin Spice Latte back on August 25, but Dunkin’ beat everyone to market on August 19 with a Pumpkin Cloud Dunkalatte and a new Tiramisu lineup. Dutch Bros [BROS] rolled its Caramel Pumpkin Brûlée back out the same week as Starbucks, across all 1,225 of its stores.
Dutch Bros compounded higher for two straight years: every quarter from the third quarter of 2024 through the second quarter of 2026 grew US daily active users versus the prior quarter, most recently accelerating to 17.5% quarter-over-quarter growth heading into this summer. That streak just broke. Third-quarter DAU, averaging July through September, is running down 2.2% from the second quarter, the first sequential decline since Q4 2023. September itself is tracking essentially flat against August, so this reads as a spring-to-summer break rather than a September story.
Dutch Bros’ own second-quarter print, reported August 5, showed 5.8% systemwide comparable sales growth and 32.5% revenue growth, its 13th straight quarter of positive comps. The stock fell anyway, down roughly a quarter over the following weeks, because guidance for the current quarter calls for comps to decelerate to 4-5%. Apptopia’s app data arrives at the same conclusion: DAU broke a two-year growth streak.
Dutch Bros was still able to take a small amount of market share. Measured as each chain’s slice of the three apps’ combined US daily active users, Dutch Bros grew from 3.6% to 4.7% year over year this quarter, while Starbucks slipped from 71.8% to 70.3% and Dunkin’ held roughly steady at 25.0%. Dutch Bros is growing off a much smaller base than the other two, so a down quarter for Dutch Bros still outpaces Starbucks standing still.
Dunkin’s downloads spiked hardest of the three, and later than its own launch date would suggest. Daily downloads jumped to roughly 54k on August 26, a week after its official nationwide debut and about three times its typical daily pace, then faded within days. September is pacing toward roughly 514k downloads, the lowest month in more than six years, and down about a third from August.
Starbucks built more gradually. Daily downloads climbed through the week after the August 25 launch, peaked near 37k on August 28, and haven’t fully come back down. September is pacing toward about 876k downloads, up 3% from August, even though that’s still 10% behind last September.
Dutch Bros barely moved. Daily downloads held in the high teens to low 20,000s through its own launch week with no visible bump, and September is pacing toward roughly 601k, down slightly from August but still 6% ahead of last year, the only one of the three growing downloads year over year this month.
