This was first published January 21, in our weekly newsletter Apptopia Insight. To receive insights like this weekly, sign up here.
- NFLX MAUs trending higher than expectations for Ending Subscribers
- BMBL decelerating less than consensus expects
- UBER data picked up in December, but still below consensus
Tech earnings season is about to get going, with Netflix releasing today. With that in mind, we have produced our quarterly earnings preview. While we have previews on 22 stocks, we wanted to highlight three that stood out: NFLX, BMBL, and UBER.
Netflix – Mobile data suggests better ending subs
Apptopia’s MAUs tracked Netflix’s ending subscribers for years until the password-sharing crackdown hit. When people stopped being able to use a friend or relative’s account, they had to sign up for Netflix on their own. This meant lots of new subscribers for Netflix. However, these people already had and were using the app. Hence, app MAUs only went up a little, while subscribers went up a lot. Now that the password-sharing crackdown has annualized, app data once again is capturing the trend very well. Our data shows user growth decelerating, but not as much as consensus expects:
Apptopia MAUs (blue line; left axis) vs Netflix Ending Subs (teal line; right axis) – YoY Growth
Bumble – User growth decelerating…but not that bad
Apptopia’s DAUs (iOS only) track Bumble’s Payers tightly. While the YoY growth rate is decelerating, it is not decelerating as much as consensus expects. For a company that has been going through a rough spell, “not that bad” can actually be pretty good:
Apptopia DAUs (blue line; left axis) vs Bumble App Payers (teal line; right axis) – YoY Growth
Uber – Tracking below expectations in 4Q
Apptopia’s app sessions data (a session is when you open the app) tracks Uber’s Mobility Gross Bookings very tightly, including capturing an inflection points in 1Q24 and 2Q24. Our sessions data shows that the relatively muted YoY growth from 3Q24 has continued into 4Q24. While there was a slight pickup in December, it is not enough to change the whole trajectory of the quarter, which looks to be below expectations:
Apptopia Sessions (blue line; left axis) vs Uber Mobility Gross Bookings (teal line; right axis) – YoY Growth
