{"id":18897,"date":"2025-10-10T12:58:58","date_gmt":"2025-10-10T12:58:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/insights\/spot-and-kpi-forecasting-with-maiden-century\/"},"modified":"2025-10-10T12:58:58","modified_gmt":"2025-10-10T12:58:58","slug":"spot-and-kpi-forecasting-with-maiden-century","status":"publish","type":"insight","link":"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/insights\/spot-and-kpi-forecasting-with-maiden-century\/","title":{"rendered":"SPOT (+) and KPI Forecasting with Maiden Century"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><em>This was first published October 9th, in our weekly newsletter\u00a0Apptopia Insight. To receive insights like this weekly, sign up\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/learn.apptopia.com\/newsletter\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Exciting news!\u00a0 Apptopia data is now on Maiden Century<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Maiden Century leverages multiple modeling frameworks to generate accurate, real-time forecasts<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Spotify is lined up to beat Consensus, according to Apptopia\u2019s data in Maiden Century\u2019s platform<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:2px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>We here at Apptopia are very excited about our new <a href=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/data-validation\/\">partnership with Maiden Century<\/a> that launched last week.\u00a0 Maiden Century does an incredible job of consolidating alternative data into a clean, consistent view.\u00a0 In fact, the Apptopia Research team is already using Maiden Century\u2019s web tool for analysis on our own data!\u00a0 Apptopia has multiple mobile data offerings &#8211; Base, Advanced, and MPI &#8211; and you can compare them all seamlessly through Maiden Century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What has us even more intrigued right now, however, is Maiden Century\u2019s KPI forecasting tools.&nbsp; We have been using our app data to preview earnings beats and misses for years now, but with Maiden Century, we can now have access to a specific point forecast to compare to consensus.&nbsp; These are high quality forecasts &#8211; for the top 100 Internet names, <strong>Maiden Century\u2019s MAPE with Apptopia data averages 1.4%<\/strong>. Below is an example showing how our data and Maiden Century\u2019s forecasts are lining up to show a beat on Premium Subscribers for SPOT.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Apptopia\u2019s MPI for Spotify is showing a slight acceleration in YoY growth in 3Q25, while consensus expects a deceleration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:50px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>SPOT &#8211; YoY Growth in Apptopia MPI vs Total Premium Subscribers<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"367\" src=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Screenshot-2025-10-09-at-8.33.22-AM-1024x367.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-15925\" srcset=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Screenshot-2025-10-09-at-8.33.22-AM-1024x367.png 1024w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Screenshot-2025-10-09-at-8.33.22-AM-300x108.png 300w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Screenshot-2025-10-09-at-8.33.22-AM-768x275.png 768w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Screenshot-2025-10-09-at-8.33.22-AM-1536x550.png 1536w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Screenshot-2025-10-09-at-8.33.22-AM-2048x734.png 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><br>Going one step further down, we can see that North America DAU growth turned positive in each month in 3Q, a positive sign for Spotify\u2019s highest ARPU region:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>SPOT &#8211; YoY Growth in Apptopia North America DAUs<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"304\" src=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Screenshot-2025-10-09-at-8.33.31-AM-1024x304.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-15926\" srcset=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Screenshot-2025-10-09-at-8.33.31-AM-1024x304.png 1024w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Screenshot-2025-10-09-at-8.33.31-AM-300x89.png 300w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Screenshot-2025-10-09-at-8.33.31-AM-768x228.png 768w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Screenshot-2025-10-09-at-8.33.31-AM-1536x456.png 1536w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Screenshot-2025-10-09-at-8.33.31-AM-2048x608.png 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Now this is where Maiden Century\u2019s forecasting tools are super useful.\u00a0 I have shown you above our MPI and DAUs, which give a good sense for what is happening with SPOT.\u00a0 Maiden Century, however, will then specifically translate those (and other) Apptopia data points into a forecast for Premium Subscribers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><strong>SPOT &#8211; Maiden Century Premium Subscriber Forecast<\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"321\" src=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Screenshot-2025-10-09-at-8.33.59-AM-1024x321.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-15927\" srcset=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Screenshot-2025-10-09-at-8.33.59-AM-1024x321.png 1024w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Screenshot-2025-10-09-at-8.33.59-AM-300x94.png 300w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Screenshot-2025-10-09-at-8.33.59-AM-768x241.png 768w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Screenshot-2025-10-09-at-8.33.59-AM-1536x481.png 1536w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Screenshot-2025-10-09-at-8.33.59-AM-2048x641.png 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Consensus expects YoY growth of 11.6% in Premium Subs, but Maiden Century\u2019s forecast using Apptopia data expects YoY growth of 12.1%.&nbsp; While this is not a huge beat, for a stock that has slid in an upward trending market, any kind of better-than-expected result in 3Q would be welcome.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We invite you to check out more of Apptopia\u2019s data on Maiden Century\u2019s platform.&nbsp; We certainly are!&nbsp; In that light, get ready for our Earnings Previews next week, where we will highlight more opportunities like SPOT.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:27px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:48px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Questions on the underlying data included in this analysis?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:49px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/engage.apptopia.com\/custom-research-request\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Data request<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This was first published October 9th, in our weekly newsletter\u00a0Apptopia Insight. To receive insights like this weekly, sign up\u00a0here. We here at Apptopia are very excited about our new partnership with Maiden Century that launched last week.\u00a0 Maiden Century does an incredible job of consolidating alternative data into a clean, consistent view.\u00a0 In fact, the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":15928,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","template":"","insight_category":[213,216],"insight_tag":[233,236],"class_list":["post-18897","insight","type-insight","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","insight_category-app-economy","insight_category-entertainment","insight_tag-macro-trends","insight_tag-mobile-channel-check"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>SPOT (+) and KPI Forecasting with Maiden Century - Apptopia<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/insights\/spot-and-kpi-forecasting-with-maiden-century\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"SPOT (+) and KPI Forecasting with Maiden Century - Apptopia\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This was first published October 9th, in our weekly newsletter\u00a0Apptopia Insight. 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