{"id":18896,"date":"2025-09-18T08:48:00","date_gmt":"2025-09-18T08:48:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/insights\/3q25-mid-quarter-previews-large-cap-edition-nflx-spot-meta\/"},"modified":"2026-03-10T20:53:27","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T20:53:27","slug":"3q25-mid-quarter-previews-large-cap-edition-nflx-spot-meta","status":"publish","type":"insight","link":"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/insights\/3q25-mid-quarter-previews-large-cap-edition-nflx-spot-meta\/","title":{"rendered":"3Q25 Mid-Quarter Previews (Large Cap Edition): NFLX (+) \/ SPOT (+) \/ META (+)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><em>This was first published September 17th, in our weekly newsletter\u00a0Apptopia Insight. To receive insights like this weekly, sign up\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/learn.apptopia.com\/newsletter\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>NFLX &#8211; Ending subs strong as MAUs re-accelerate<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>SPOT &#8211; Premium sub growth looks to stop decelerating<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>META &#8211; DAP growth tracking ahead of consensus<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:2px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Welcome to our second installment of mid-quarter previews!&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/my_reports?utm_campaign=Finance%20Newsletter%20-%20Lead%20Engine&amp;utm_source=hs_email&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8r-a9NBvzVs-lxQuvK0tTm3HnQoCg_LCg4mocNC01WHRv_SDz7beXKcjw3_nq4nPWdfGpF\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Click here<\/a>&nbsp;to see the whole preview file, or just check out&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/apptopia.com\/?utm_campaign=Finance%20Newsletter%20-%20Lead%20Engine&amp;utm_source=hs_email&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8r-a9NBvzVs-lxQuvK0tTm3HnQoCg_LCg4mocNC01WHRv_SDz7beXKcjw3_nq4nPWdfGpF\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">apptopia.com<\/a>&nbsp;to get a mobile read on the quarter for whatever stock you like.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In this installment, we would like to call attention to some larger cap stocks whose prices have been flattish of late, but whose mobile data has not. It is always exciting to find the next CRCL or even RBLX, but large caps deserve some appreciation too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:50px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Netflix &#8211; Ending Subs<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Yes, we know Netflix does not report Ending Subs quarterly anymore. But that is what makes mobile data so useful &#8211; you can still know what is happening with users even if NFLX will not tell you. Our MPI for NFLX shows a nice acceleration this quarter, driven by its MAUs showing YoY growth around the world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" src=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-17-at-10.12.49-AM-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-15565\" srcset=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-17-at-10.12.49-AM-1024x483.png 1024w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-17-at-10.12.49-AM-300x141.png 300w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-17-at-10.12.49-AM-768x362.png 768w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-17-at-10.12.49-AM-1536x724.png 1536w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-17-at-10.12.49-AM.png 1870w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Spotify &#8211; Premium Subs<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><br>Spotify\u2019s stock was -11% after reporting 2Q earnings. Our MPI pointed to that disappointing result last quarter, as we had a negative read heading in. However, things have turned around in 3Q. At this point, Apptopia\u2019s mobile data is pointing to a re-acceleration in Premium Subs in 3Q (see first chart below). The key to this change is the end of decelerating MAU growth (see second chart below).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><em><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><em><em>Spotify &#8211; Apptopia MPI YoY Growth vs Premium Subs YoY Growth<\/em><\/em><\/span><\/em><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"495\" src=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-17-at-10.13.06-AM-1024x495.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-15566\" srcset=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-17-at-10.13.06-AM-1024x495.png 1024w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-17-at-10.13.06-AM-300x145.png 300w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-17-at-10.13.06-AM-768x371.png 768w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-17-at-10.13.06-AM-1536x742.png 1536w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-17-at-10.13.06-AM.png 1830w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><em><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><em>Spotify &#8211; Apptopia MAUs YoY Growth<\/em><\/span><\/em><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"487\" src=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-17-at-10.13.20-AM-1024x487.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-15567\" srcset=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-17-at-10.13.20-AM-1024x487.png 1024w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-17-at-10.13.20-AM-300x143.png 300w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-17-at-10.13.20-AM-768x366.png 768w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-17-at-10.13.20-AM-1536x731.png 1536w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-17-at-10.13.20-AM.png 1748w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">META &#8211; DAP Facebook Family<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>With regards to META, everyone cares about Ad Revenue now, right? However, continued user growth is key to the long-term success of META &#8211; after all, they need people to show all those ads to. While Consensus is expecting DAP growth to decelerate, our MPI is showing the opposite trend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"497\" src=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-17-at-10.13.27-AM-1024x497.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-15568\" srcset=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-17-at-10.13.27-AM-1024x497.png 1024w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-17-at-10.13.27-AM-300x146.png 300w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-17-at-10.13.27-AM-768x373.png 768w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-17-at-10.13.27-AM-1536x746.png 1536w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-17-at-10.13.27-AM.png 1898w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>In addition, we are seeing time spent per DAU on Instagram among 17-25 year olds rising faster than for all users. Increasing engagement like this is a good sign for high-quality ad inventory growth this quarter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><em><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">META &#8211; Instagram Minutes per DAU YoY Growth &#8211; Ages 17-25 vs All Users(monthly)<\/span><\/em><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"392\" src=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-17-at-10.13.42-AM-1024x392.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-15569\" srcset=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-17-at-10.13.42-AM-1024x392.png 1024w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-17-at-10.13.42-AM-300x115.png 300w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-17-at-10.13.42-AM-768x294.png 768w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-17-at-10.13.42-AM-1536x587.png 1536w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-17-at-10.13.42-AM.png 1820w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:27px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:48px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Questions on the underlying data included in this analysis?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:49px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/engage.apptopia.com\/custom-research-request\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Data request<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This was first published September 17th, in our weekly newsletter\u00a0Apptopia Insight. To receive insights like this weekly, sign up\u00a0here. Welcome to our second installment of mid-quarter previews!&nbsp;Click here&nbsp;to see the whole preview file, or just check out&nbsp;apptopia.com&nbsp;to get a mobile read on the quarter for whatever stock you like. In this installment, we would like [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":15570,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","template":"","insight_category":[93,88,92],"insight_tag":[117,113,271],"class_list":["post-18896","insight","type-insight","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","insight_category-music-streaming","insight_category-social-media","insight_category-video-streaming","insight_tag-meta","insight_tag-nflx","insight_tag-spot"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>3Q25 Mid-Quarter Previews (Large Cap Edition): NFLX (+) \/ SPOT (+) \/ META (+) - Apptopia<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/insights\/3q25-mid-quarter-previews-large-cap-edition-nflx-spot-meta\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"3Q25 Mid-Quarter Previews (Large Cap Edition): NFLX (+) \/ SPOT (+) \/ META (+) - Apptopia\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This was first published September 17th, in our weekly newsletter\u00a0Apptopia Insight. 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To receive insights like this weekly, sign up\u00a0here. Welcome to our second installment of mid-quarter previews!&nbsp;Click here&nbsp;to see the whole preview file, or just check out&nbsp;apptopia.com&nbsp;to get a mobile read on the quarter for whatever stock you like. 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