{"id":18882,"date":"2025-04-25T15:44:56","date_gmt":"2025-04-25T15:44:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/insights\/1q25-earnings-previews-coin-expe-rblx-uber-se\/"},"modified":"2025-04-25T15:44:56","modified_gmt":"2025-04-25T15:44:56","slug":"1q25-earnings-previews-coin-expe-rblx-uber-se","status":"publish","type":"insight","link":"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/insights\/1q25-earnings-previews-coin-expe-rblx-uber-se\/","title":{"rendered":"1Q25 Earnings Previews &#8211; COIN (+) \/ EXPE (+) \/ RBLX (+) \/ UBER (+) \/ SE (-)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><em>This was first published April 23, in our weekly newsletter\u00a0Apptopia Insight. To receive insights like this weekly, sign up\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/learn.apptopia.com\/newsletter\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>COIN DAUs are decelerating, but not nearly at the rate the market expects<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>While travel is a concern right now, EXPE data looks healthy<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Expectations for UBER seem low<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>SE &#8211; Garena IAP Revenue suffered to end 1Q<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:2px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>In our attached\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/my_reports?utm_campaign=Finance%20Newsletter%20-%20Lead%20Engine&amp;utm_source=hs_email&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;_hsenc=p2ANqtz--2xSbbcNvKDKeZdIAAnmDsnGBlWfUGC09A2cRrOyMXNLqtvBxFStMxd5IngpS9BoDgsvuP\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">earnings previews<\/a>, we summarize in one slide what our data is saying relative to consensus for each of the stocks mentioned above (and many more!). For COIN, EXPE, RBLX, and UBER, we see upside, and for SE\u2019s Garena business we see downside.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-text-align-center wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/my_reports?utm_campaign=Finance%20Newsletter%20-%20Lead%20Engine&amp;utm_source=hs_email&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;_hsenc=p2ANqtz--2xSbbcNvKDKeZdIAAnmDsnGBlWfUGC09A2cRrOyMXNLqtvBxFStMxd5IngpS9BoDgsvuP#research-library\"><strong>Access 1Q25 Earnings Previews<\/strong><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:50px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><strong><strong>Coinbase (COIN)<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Our research suggests that the YoY growth in our DAU metric captures the YoY growth trend in COIN\u2019s reported Consumer Trading Volume. While March did show a significant slowdown, January and February saw very strong YoY growth in DAUs. Meanwhile, April\u2019s DAU growth remains positive through the first three weeks. Our view is that 1Q25 growth is trending higher than the market expects.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"560\" src=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-22-at-7.32.04\u202fAM-1024x560.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4955\" srcset=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-22-at-7.32.04\u202fAM-1024x560.png 1024w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-22-at-7.32.04\u202fAM-300x164.png 300w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-22-at-7.32.04\u202fAM-768x420.png 768w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-22-at-7.32.04\u202fAM-1536x840.png 1536w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-22-at-7.32.04\u202fAM.png 1602w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><strong><strong>Expedia (EXPE)<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Over time, the relationship between Apptopia\u2019s metrics and Expedia\u2019s reported Room Nights has evolved from being oriented towards new users downloading the app to returning customers using the app for multiple different reasons (booking, changing a reservation, checking in, etc.) We now find that our DAUs metric exhibits the best relationship with Expedia\u2019s Room Nights. This growth has stayed surprisingly solid despite concerns about consumer sentiment. Indeed, the YoY growth in Expedia\u2019s DAUs has even picked up slightly in April.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"550\" src=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-22-at-7.33.53\u202fAM-1024x550.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4954\" srcset=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-22-at-7.33.53\u202fAM-1024x550.png 1024w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-22-at-7.33.53\u202fAM-300x161.png 300w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-22-at-7.33.53\u202fAM-768x413.png 768w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-22-at-7.33.53\u202fAM-1536x825.png 1536w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-22-at-7.33.53\u202fAM.png 1608w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><strong><strong><strong>Roblox (RBLX)<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In 4Q24, Apptopia\u2019s data showed a significant deceleration in RBLX\u2019s DAUs. The deceleration was so out-of-consensus that we were concerned about sharing it with our customers. It turned out that our data had the right signal all along in 4Q. Now that 1Q25 has come to a close, we are seeing a rebound in RBLX\u2019s data that we read as better than what consensus expects. While January accounted for the best YoY growth in DAUs in 1Q25, both March and April (MTD) are showing sequential improvements in growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"568\" src=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-22-at-7.35.38\u202fAM-1024x568.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4953\" srcset=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-22-at-7.35.38\u202fAM-1024x568.png 1024w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-22-at-7.35.38\u202fAM-300x166.png 300w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-22-at-7.35.38\u202fAM-768x426.png 768w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-22-at-7.35.38\u202fAM-1536x852.png 1536w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-22-at-7.35.38\u202fAM.png 1590w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><strong><strong><strong>Uber (UBER)<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Apptopia\u2019s data on Uber\u2019s Driver app corresponds very well to Uber\u2019s reported Trips. While we model our MAU data in the Earnings Preview slides, the DAUs data is shown below for consistency with the stocks above. One can see that activity on the Uber Driver app has been increasing sequentially for the past three months, suggesting better-than-expected growth in Trips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"580\" src=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-22-at-7.38.56\u202fAM-1024x580.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4952\" srcset=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-22-at-7.38.56\u202fAM-1024x580.png 1024w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-22-at-7.38.56\u202fAM-300x170.png 300w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-22-at-7.38.56\u202fAM-768x435.png 768w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-22-at-7.38.56\u202fAM-1536x870.png 1536w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-22-at-7.38.56\u202fAM.png 1610w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><strong><strong><strong>Sea &#8211; (SE)<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Apptopia\u2019s IAP Revenue (in-app purchase revenue) captures the activity of players when they purchase new game items through the App Store or Google Play. This metric also historically has done a good job of tracking what SE reports for its Digital Entertainment Revenues (Adjusted). As you can see below, Free Fire MAX had a good January, but actually saw a YoY decline in IAP Revenue in March. Free Fire itself was more steady, but put together, 1Q25 ended on a sour note for the Garena franchise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"583\" src=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-22-at-7.41.19\u202fAM-1024x583.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4951\" srcset=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-22-at-7.41.19\u202fAM-1024x583.png 1024w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-22-at-7.41.19\u202fAM-300x171.png 300w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-22-at-7.41.19\u202fAM-768x437.png 768w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-22-at-7.41.19\u202fAM-1536x875.png 1536w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-22-at-7.41.19\u202fAM.png 1612w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:27px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:48px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Questions on the underlying data included in this analysis?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:49px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/engage.apptopia.com\/custom-research-request\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Data request<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This was first published April 23, in our weekly newsletter\u00a0Apptopia Insight. To receive insights like this weekly, sign up\u00a0here. In our attached\u00a0earnings previews, we summarize in one slide what our data is saying relative to consensus for each of the stocks mentioned above (and many more!). For COIN, EXPE, RBLX, and UBER, we see upside, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":4956,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","template":"","insight_category":[213,86],"insight_tag":[232],"class_list":["post-18882","insight","type-insight","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","insight_category-app-economy","insight_category-fintech","insight_tag-earnings-previews"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>1Q25 Earnings Previews - COIN (+) \/ EXPE (+) \/ RBLX (+) \/ UBER (+) \/ SE (-) - Apptopia<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/insights\/1q25-earnings-previews-coin-expe-rblx-uber-se\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"1Q25 Earnings Previews - COIN (+) \/ EXPE (+) \/ RBLX (+) \/ UBER (+) \/ SE (-) - Apptopia\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This was first published April 23, in our weekly newsletter\u00a0Apptopia Insight. To receive insights like this weekly, sign up\u00a0here. In our attached\u00a0earnings previews, we summarize in one slide what our data is saying relative to consensus for each of the stocks mentioned above (and many more!). 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To receive insights like this weekly, sign up\u00a0here. In our attached\u00a0earnings previews, we summarize in one slide what our data is saying relative to consensus for each of the stocks mentioned above (and many more!). 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