{"id":18880,"date":"2025-01-22T09:15:00","date_gmt":"2025-01-22T09:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/insights\/4q-earnings-previews-nflx-bmbl-uber\/"},"modified":"2025-01-22T09:15:00","modified_gmt":"2025-01-22T09:15:00","slug":"4q-earnings-previews-nflx-bmbl-uber","status":"publish","type":"insight","link":"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/insights\/4q-earnings-previews-nflx-bmbl-uber\/","title":{"rendered":"4Q Earnings Previews &#8211; NFLX (+) \/ BMBL (+) \/ UBER (-)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><em>This was first published January 21, in our weekly newsletter\u00a0Apptopia Insight. To receive insights like this weekly, sign up\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/learn.apptopia.com\/newsletter\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>NFLX MAUs trending higher than expectations for Ending Subscribers<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>BMBL decelerating less than consensus expects<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>UBER data picked up in December, but still below consensus<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:2px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Tech earnings season is about to get going, with Netflix releasing today.\u00a0 With that in mind, we have produced our quarterly earnings preview.\u00a0 While we have previews on 22 stocks, we wanted to highlight three that stood out: NFLX, BMBL, and UBER.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-text-align-center wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/my_reports#research-library\">Access 4Q24 Earnings Previews<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:50px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><strong><strong>Netflix &#8211; Mobile data suggests better ending subs<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Apptopia\u2019s MAUs tracked Netflix\u2019s ending subscribers for years until the password-sharing crackdown hit.\u00a0 When people stopped being able to use a friend or relative\u2019s account, they had to sign up for Netflix on their own.\u00a0 This meant lots of new subscribers for Netflix.\u00a0 However, these people already had and were using the app.\u00a0 Hence, app MAUs only went up a little, while subscribers went up a lot.\u00a0 Now that the password-sharing crackdown has annualized, app data once again is capturing the trend very well.\u00a0 Our data shows user growth decelerating, but not as much as consensus expects:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Apptopia MAUs (blue line; left axis) vs Netflix Ending Subs (teal line; right axis) &#8211; YoY Growth<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"436\" src=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Screenshot-2025-01-21-at-10.30.37\u202fAM-1024x436.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4118\" srcset=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Screenshot-2025-01-21-at-10.30.37\u202fAM-1024x436.png 1024w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Screenshot-2025-01-21-at-10.30.37\u202fAM-300x128.png 300w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Screenshot-2025-01-21-at-10.30.37\u202fAM-768x327.png 768w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Screenshot-2025-01-21-at-10.30.37\u202fAM-1536x655.png 1536w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Screenshot-2025-01-21-at-10.30.37\u202fAM-2048x873.png 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><strong><strong>Bumble &#8211; User growth decelerating\u2026but not that bad<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Apptopia\u2019s DAUs (iOS only) track Bumble\u2019s Payers tightly.\u00a0 While the YoY growth rate is decelerating, it is not decelerating as much as consensus expects.\u00a0 For a company that has been going through a rough spell, \u201cnot <em>that<\/em> bad\u201d can actually be pretty good:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Apptopia DAUs (blue line; left axis) vs Bumble App Payers (teal line; right axis) &#8211; YoY Growth<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"522\" src=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Screenshot-2025-01-21-at-10.32.38\u202fAM-1024x522.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4119\" srcset=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Screenshot-2025-01-21-at-10.32.38\u202fAM-1024x522.png 1024w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Screenshot-2025-01-21-at-10.32.38\u202fAM-300x153.png 300w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Screenshot-2025-01-21-at-10.32.38\u202fAM-768x391.png 768w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Screenshot-2025-01-21-at-10.32.38\u202fAM-1536x783.png 1536w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Screenshot-2025-01-21-at-10.32.38\u202fAM.png 1876w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><strong><strong><strong>Uber &#8211; Tracking below expectations in 4Q<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Apptopia\u2019s app sessions data (a session is when you open the app) tracks Uber\u2019s Mobility Gross Bookings very tightly, including capturing an inflection points in 1Q24 and 2Q24.\u00a0 Our sessions data shows that the relatively muted YoY growth from 3Q24 has continued into 4Q24.\u00a0 While there was a slight pickup in December, it is not enough to change the whole trajectory of the quarter, which looks to be below expectations:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Apptopia Sessions (blue line; left axis) vs Uber Mobility Gross Bookings (teal line; right axis) &#8211; YoY Growth<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"476\" src=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Screenshot-2025-01-21-at-10.35.03\u202fAM-1024x476.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4120\" srcset=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Screenshot-2025-01-21-at-10.35.03\u202fAM-1024x476.png 1024w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Screenshot-2025-01-21-at-10.35.03\u202fAM-300x140.png 300w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Screenshot-2025-01-21-at-10.35.03\u202fAM-768x357.png 768w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Screenshot-2025-01-21-at-10.35.03\u202fAM-1536x714.png 1536w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Screenshot-2025-01-21-at-10.35.03\u202fAM.png 1888w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:27px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:48px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Questions on the underlying data included in this analysis?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:49px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/engage.apptopia.com\/custom-research-request\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Data request<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This was first published January 21, in our weekly newsletter\u00a0Apptopia Insight. To receive insights like this weekly, sign up\u00a0here. Tech earnings season is about to get going, with Netflix releasing today.\u00a0 With that in mind, we have produced our quarterly earnings preview.\u00a0 While we have previews on 22 stocks, we wanted to highlight three that [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":4125,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","template":"","insight_category":[213,88],"insight_tag":[236],"class_list":["post-18880","insight","type-insight","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","insight_category-app-economy","insight_category-social-media","insight_tag-mobile-channel-check"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>4Q Earnings Previews - NFLX (+) \/ BMBL (+) \/ UBER (-) - Apptopia<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/insights\/4q-earnings-previews-nflx-bmbl-uber\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"4Q Earnings Previews - NFLX (+) \/ BMBL (+) \/ UBER (-) - Apptopia\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This was first published January 21, in our weekly newsletter\u00a0Apptopia Insight. 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