{"id":18877,"date":"2024-12-18T09:15:00","date_gmt":"2024-12-18T09:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/insights\/mtch-bmbl-grnd-dating-mid-quarter-update-and-mtch-investor-day\/"},"modified":"2024-12-18T09:15:00","modified_gmt":"2024-12-18T09:15:00","slug":"mtch-bmbl-grnd-dating-mid-quarter-update-and-mtch-investor-day","status":"publish","type":"insight","link":"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/insights\/mtch-bmbl-grnd-dating-mid-quarter-update-and-mtch-investor-day\/","title":{"rendered":"MTCH \/ BMBL \/ GRND &#8211; Dating Mid-Quarter Update and MTCH Investor Day"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><em>This was first published December 17, in our weekly newsletter\u00a0Apptopia Insight. To receive insights like this weekly, sign up\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/learn.apptopia.com\/newsletter\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Deceleration in DAU growth for BMBL\/MTCH\u2026but perhaps not that bad?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Acceleration in DAU growth for GRND\u2026but perhaps not that good?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>MTCH Investor Day &#8211; female engagement improves; Hinge cross-app rises<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>BMBL &#8211; cross-app usage story is concerning<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:20px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Kelly Clarkson has a message for all the dating app users out there:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>It just wasn&#8217;t the same<br>Alone on Christmas day<br>Presents, what a beautiful sight<br>Don&#8217;t mean a thing if you ain&#8217;t holding me tight<br>You&#8217;re all that I need<br>Underneath the tree<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, they seem not to be listening.\u00a0 DAU growth on a YoY basis is weakening almost across the board these past few weeks:<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"499\" src=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Screenshot-2024-12-17-at-9.52.36\u202fAM-1024x499.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4082\" srcset=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Screenshot-2024-12-17-at-9.52.36\u202fAM-1024x499.png 1024w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Screenshot-2024-12-17-at-9.52.36\u202fAM-300x146.png 300w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Screenshot-2024-12-17-at-9.52.36\u202fAM-768x374.png 768w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Screenshot-2024-12-17-at-9.52.36\u202fAM-1536x748.png 1536w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Screenshot-2024-12-17-at-9.52.36\u202fAM.png 1962w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Usually a trend like this presents some risk for meeting consensus expectations.\u00a0 However, check out the YoY DAU growth trend vs consensus for Bumble payers and Tinder payers below &#8211; they are mostly tracking inline with consensus, if not a little better if you squint:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>YouTube-TikTok cross-app usage<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"702\" src=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Screenshot-2024-12-17-at-10.00.29\u202fAM-1024x702.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4083\" srcset=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Screenshot-2024-12-17-at-10.00.29\u202fAM-1024x702.png 1024w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Screenshot-2024-12-17-at-10.00.29\u202fAM-300x206.png 300w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Screenshot-2024-12-17-at-10.00.29\u202fAM-768x526.png 768w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Screenshot-2024-12-17-at-10.00.29\u202fAM-1536x1052.png 1536w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Screenshot-2024-12-17-at-10.00.29\u202fAM-2048x1403.png 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><strong>Tinder Payers (teal line) vs Tinder DAUs (blue line) &#8211; YoY Growth<\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"695\" src=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Screenshot-2024-12-17-at-10.02.37\u202fAM-1024x695.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4084\" srcset=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Screenshot-2024-12-17-at-10.02.37\u202fAM-1024x695.png 1024w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Screenshot-2024-12-17-at-10.02.37\u202fAM-300x204.png 300w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Screenshot-2024-12-17-at-10.02.37\u202fAM-768x521.png 768w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Screenshot-2024-12-17-at-10.02.37\u202fAM-1536x1042.png 1536w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Screenshot-2024-12-17-at-10.02.37\u202fAM-2048x1390.png 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><strong><strong>Acceleration in DAU growth for GRND\u2026but perhaps not that good?<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, as we saw above, Grindr is actually seeing YoY growth pick up on a weekly basis. However, that is not enough compared to market expectations, suggesting Grindr could be on a path for an earnings miss:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"700\" src=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Screenshot-2024-12-17-at-10.05.09\u202fAM-1024x700.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4085\" srcset=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Screenshot-2024-12-17-at-10.05.09\u202fAM-1024x700.png 1024w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Screenshot-2024-12-17-at-10.05.09\u202fAM-300x205.png 300w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Screenshot-2024-12-17-at-10.05.09\u202fAM-768x525.png 768w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Screenshot-2024-12-17-at-10.05.09\u202fAM-1536x1050.png 1536w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Screenshot-2024-12-17-at-10.05.09\u202fAM-2048x1400.png 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><strong><strong>MTCH Investor Day &#8211; female engagement improves; Hinge cross-app rises<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Checking in on MTCH\u2019s downbeat investor day, we are currently forecasting an inline quarter for Tinder Payers.&nbsp; However, MTCH\u2019s presentation brought a lot of negativity to the stock.&nbsp; We decided to evaluate two points they made in the presentation: 1) Are Hinge users also heavy users of Tinder (in the presentation they said 39% of Hinge users are active on Tinder)?; 2) Are females more engaged with Tinder (in the presentation they showed that women were matching more)?&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The first chart below shows the percentage of Hinge users who also use Tinder.&nbsp; Apptopia data shows that 40% of Hinge users also Tinder, inline with MTCH\u2019s presentation.&nbsp; However, this is a pretty normal level over the past two years and, if anything, is slightly lower than it was in early 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"602\" src=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Screenshot-2024-12-17-at-10.06.52\u202fAM-1024x602.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4086\" srcset=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Screenshot-2024-12-17-at-10.06.52\u202fAM-1024x602.png 1024w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Screenshot-2024-12-17-at-10.06.52\u202fAM-300x176.png 300w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Screenshot-2024-12-17-at-10.06.52\u202fAM-768x452.png 768w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Screenshot-2024-12-17-at-10.06.52\u202fAM-1536x904.png 1536w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Screenshot-2024-12-17-at-10.06.52\u202fAM-2048x1205.png 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>This next chart shows the opposite relationship &#8211; the percentage of Tinder users who use Hinge.\u00a0 While this percentage is still low (18%), it has been on the rise.\u00a0 This increase makes sense given how well Hinge has grown over the past two years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" src=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Screenshot-2024-12-17-at-10.07.55\u202fAM-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4088\" srcset=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Screenshot-2024-12-17-at-10.07.55\u202fAM-1024x558.png 1024w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Screenshot-2024-12-17-at-10.07.55\u202fAM-300x164.png 300w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Screenshot-2024-12-17-at-10.07.55\u202fAM-768x419.png 768w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Screenshot-2024-12-17-at-10.07.55\u202fAM-1536x837.png 1536w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Screenshot-2024-12-17-at-10.07.55\u202fAM-2048x1117.png 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><strong><strong><strong>Bumble &#8211; cross-app usage story is concerning<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In our exploration of cross-app usage of Hinge and Tinder, we noticed some concerning trends at Bumble.\u00a0 While 4Q is shaping up well, we observed that Bumble users are also using Tinder and Hinge more frequently.\u00a0 The percentage of Bumble users who use Hinge rose from 22% at the beginning of 2023 to 29% as of November 2024.\u00a0 Over that same timeframe, the percentage of Bumble users who use Tinder rose from 39% to 44%.\u00a0 This negative development on competitive dynamics for Bumble signals yet another headwind for the app.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"673\" src=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Screenshot-2024-12-17-at-10.13.28\u202fAM-1024x673.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4089\" srcset=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Screenshot-2024-12-17-at-10.13.28\u202fAM-1024x673.png 1024w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Screenshot-2024-12-17-at-10.13.28\u202fAM-300x197.png 300w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Screenshot-2024-12-17-at-10.13.28\u202fAM-768x505.png 768w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Screenshot-2024-12-17-at-10.13.28\u202fAM-1536x1010.png 1536w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Screenshot-2024-12-17-at-10.13.28\u202fAM.png 2032w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:27px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:48px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Questions on the underlying data included in this analysis?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:49px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/engage.apptopia.com\/custom-research-request\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Data request<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This was first published December 17, in our weekly newsletter\u00a0Apptopia Insight. To receive insights like this weekly, sign up\u00a0here. Kelly Clarkson has a message for all the dating app users out there: It just wasn&#8217;t the sameAlone on Christmas dayPresents, what a beautiful sightDon&#8217;t mean a thing if you ain&#8217;t holding me tightYou&#8217;re all that [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":4090,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","template":"","insight_category":[213,84,88],"insight_tag":[236],"class_list":["post-18877","insight","type-insight","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","insight_category-app-economy","insight_category-dating","insight_category-social-media","insight_tag-mobile-channel-check"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MTCH \/ BMBL \/ GRND - Dating Mid-Quarter Update and MTCH Investor Day - Apptopia<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/insights\/mtch-bmbl-grnd-dating-mid-quarter-update-and-mtch-investor-day\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"MTCH \/ BMBL \/ GRND - Dating Mid-Quarter Update and MTCH Investor Day - Apptopia\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This was first published December 17, in our weekly newsletter\u00a0Apptopia Insight. 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