{"id":18874,"date":"2024-11-27T09:15:00","date_gmt":"2024-11-27T09:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/insights\/coin-dkng-duol-sofi-sq-earnings-review-and-mid-quarter-update\/"},"modified":"2024-11-27T09:15:00","modified_gmt":"2024-11-27T09:15:00","slug":"coin-dkng-duol-sofi-sq-earnings-review-and-mid-quarter-update","status":"publish","type":"insight","link":"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/insights\/coin-dkng-duol-sofi-sq-earnings-review-and-mid-quarter-update\/","title":{"rendered":"COIN \/ DKNG \/ DUOL \/ SOFI \/ SQ &#8211; Earnings Review and Mid-Quarter Update"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><em>This was first published November 26, in our weekly newsletter&nbsp;Apptopia Insight. To receive insights like this weekly, sign up&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/learn.apptopia.com\/newsletter\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Coinbase (COIN) is doing even better than you think<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>DraftKings (DKNG) app data is strong QTD &#8211; which is only inline with consensus<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Duolingo (DUOL) trends have weakened after an exceptional September<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>SoFi (SOFI) app data supports the stock movement QTD<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Block (SQ) &#8211; Cash App has been decelerating of late<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:47px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Four weeks ago we wrote our earnings previews ahead of 3Q.\u00a0 We had a hit rate of 76% which is inline with our historical level of accuracy.\u00a0 Four of the stocks we hit on were COIN, DKNG, DUOL, and SOFI.\u00a0 In each case, the stock price moved in the same direction as the beat\/miss to consensus that we previewed.\u00a0 Please let us know if you want our Earnings Review where we examine how we did and how things are going mid-quarter.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In that vein, here are updates on all four as we get farther into 4Q, plus a bonus update on Cash App as recent trends have turned negative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>COIN &#8211; doing even better than you think<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Apptopia\u2019s downloads metric continues to provide a good signal when tracking Coinbase\u2019s consumer trading volume, and it correctly pointed to lower-than-expected consumer trading volume in 3Q24. However, that trend has reversed and app downloads have spiked post-election &#8211; probably not a total surprise, but probably better than you think. This spike these past couple of weeks in Coinbase app downloads suggests consumer trading volume is tracking ahead of consensus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"407\" src=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Screenshot-2024-11-25-at-3.12.25\u202fPM-1-1024x407.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4034\" srcset=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Screenshot-2024-11-25-at-3.12.25\u202fPM-1-1024x407.png 1024w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Screenshot-2024-11-25-at-3.12.25\u202fPM-1-300x119.png 300w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Screenshot-2024-11-25-at-3.12.25\u202fPM-1-768x305.png 768w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Screenshot-2024-11-25-at-3.12.25\u202fPM-1-1536x610.png 1536w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Screenshot-2024-11-25-at-3.12.25\u202fPM-1-2048x814.png 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>DKNG &#8211; app data is strong QTD &#8211; which is only inline with consensus<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Apptopia\u2019s daily active user metric tracks closely with DraftKings\u2019s reported Monthly Unique Players, and in 3Q pointed to a beat (though the beat turned out even better than our data suggested).\u00a0 Consensus increased their 4Q estimates as a result.\u00a0 Despite this challenging bar for the company to clear, app data suggests that DraftKings is well on its way to meeting it:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"540\" src=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Screenshot-2024-11-25-at-3.14.53\u202fPM-1-1024x540.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4035\" srcset=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Screenshot-2024-11-25-at-3.14.53\u202fPM-1-1024x540.png 1024w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Screenshot-2024-11-25-at-3.14.53\u202fPM-1-300x158.png 300w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Screenshot-2024-11-25-at-3.14.53\u202fPM-1-768x405.png 768w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Screenshot-2024-11-25-at-3.14.53\u202fPM-1-1536x809.png 1536w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Screenshot-2024-11-25-at-3.14.53\u202fPM-1.png 2000w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>DUOL &#8211; trends have weakened after an exceptional September<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Duolingo\u2019s stock has been hitting new highs after reporting better-than-expected earnings.&nbsp; However, Apptopia\u2019s DAU metric is showing a growth slowdown after what appears to be a bit of an outlier in September.&nbsp; Unless the company pulls off another strong month in December, Duolingo is on track to disappoint the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"343\" src=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Screenshot-2024-11-25-at-3.16.56\u202fPM-1024x343.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4031\" srcset=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Screenshot-2024-11-25-at-3.16.56\u202fPM-1024x343.png 1024w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Screenshot-2024-11-25-at-3.16.56\u202fPM-300x100.png 300w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Screenshot-2024-11-25-at-3.16.56\u202fPM-768x257.png 768w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Screenshot-2024-11-25-at-3.16.56\u202fPM-1536x514.png 1536w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Screenshot-2024-11-25-at-3.16.56\u202fPM-2048x685.png 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>SOFI &#8211; app data supports the stock movement QTD<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>SoFi\u2019s app downloads look just like the stock price of late.&nbsp; Apptopia\u2019s downloads data on the SoFi app have a high correlation with SoFi\u2019s reported Originations Volume and correctly predicted the beat in 3Q.&nbsp; That growth is continuing in 4Q, with November in particular showing an acceleration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2016\" height=\"808\" src=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Screenshot-2024-11-25-at-3.18.19\u202fPM.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4032\" srcset=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Screenshot-2024-11-25-at-3.18.19\u202fPM.png 2016w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Screenshot-2024-11-25-at-3.18.19\u202fPM-300x120.png 300w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Screenshot-2024-11-25-at-3.18.19\u202fPM-1024x410.png 1024w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Screenshot-2024-11-25-at-3.18.19\u202fPM-768x308.png 768w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Screenshot-2024-11-25-at-3.18.19\u202fPM-1536x616.png 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2016px) 100vw, 2016px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>SQ &#8211; Cash App has been decelerating of late<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While we did not preview SQ for 3Q, historically our MAU data has captured the YoY growth trend in Cash App\u2019s revenue ex-Bitcoin.\u00a0 Looking at app data for the past few weeks on Cash App, there is reason for concern as new users (downloads) continue to show negative YoY growth, and we are starting to see decelerating YoY growth of MAUs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"765\" src=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Screenshot-2024-11-25-at-3.20.14\u202fPM-1024x765.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4033\" srcset=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Screenshot-2024-11-25-at-3.20.14\u202fPM-1024x765.png 1024w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Screenshot-2024-11-25-at-3.20.14\u202fPM-300x224.png 300w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Screenshot-2024-11-25-at-3.20.14\u202fPM-768x574.png 768w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Screenshot-2024-11-25-at-3.20.14\u202fPM-1536x1147.png 1536w, https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Screenshot-2024-11-25-at-3.20.14\u202fPM.png 2022w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:27px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:48px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Questions on the underlying data included in this analysis?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:49px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/engage.apptopia.com\/custom-research-request\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Data request<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This was first published November 26, in our weekly newsletter&nbsp;Apptopia Insight. To receive insights like this weekly, sign up&nbsp;here. Four weeks ago we wrote our earnings previews ahead of 3Q.\u00a0 We had a hit rate of 76% which is inline with our historical level of accuracy.\u00a0 Four of the stocks we hit on were COIN, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":4036,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","template":"","insight_category":[213],"insight_tag":[235],"class_list":["post-18874","insight","type-insight","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","insight_category-app-economy","insight_tag-digital-transformation"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>COIN \/ DKNG \/ DUOL \/ SOFI \/ SQ - Earnings Review and Mid-Quarter Update - Apptopia<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/apptopia.com\/en\/insights\/coin-dkng-duol-sofi-sq-earnings-review-and-mid-quarter-update\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"COIN \/ DKNG \/ DUOL \/ SOFI \/ SQ - Earnings Review and Mid-Quarter Update - Apptopia\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This was first published November 26, in our weekly newsletter&nbsp;Apptopia Insight. 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