This was first published January 9, in our weekly newsletter Apptopia Insight. To receive insights like this weekly, sign up here.
- Cash App MTAC deceleration continues
- Coinbase Power Users flash warning sign
- Robinhood powers ahead
- Remitly is strong but it is decelerating
Happy 2025! We are starting the year by looking back at one of the best performing segments of 4Q, Fintech. Below is a snapshot of YoY growth for the sector by month. Note the divergence in performance between the top (COIN and HOOD) and SQ at the bottom.
SQ – weakness in Cash App
Conveniently, SQ reports Monthly Transacting Active Customers (MTAC) for Cash App, while Apptopia estimates MAUs. This relationship has been strong over the years and portends poorly for Cash App in 4Q. However, consensus has already captured that same deceleration:
COIN is smashing expectations, but power users are flashing a warning sign
Coinbase’s app is doing incredibly well, as one might expect, with app sessions accelerating significantly in 4Q (YoY growth of 100%). Historically, app sessions have tracked Consumer Trading Volume, and as depicted below, consensus (dotted teal line) is expecting a deceleration in 4Q. This sort of mismatch between market expectations and app data is unusual.
However, there is one concerning sign for Coinbase – its power users tend to move first and are usually ahead of the curve when it comes to trading crypto. We have seen the YoY growth in the sessions activity of power users come in below the YoY growth of all users over the past few weeks of December, potentially signaling some weakness ahead:
Robinhood powers ahead
Robinhood’s data has been strong – no surprise given how much the market rallied pre- and post-election. What surprises me is just how strong the sell-side thinks Robinhood did. Street expectations for acceleration in Transaction-based Revenue is quite high (see chart below). I suppose it could be outperforming app data because app data is only the volume of usage and is missing the higher prices that come along with a rising market.
Remitly strong but everyone already knows
Remitly is having a very nice quarter with solid app metric growth. However, the stock price has been on fire, reflecting that growth, and consensus also appears to capture the pace of growth, at least when it comes to Active Consumers. In some ways, it makes us start to question if this growth deceleration is being downplayed by the market too much.
