This was first published December 17, in our weekly newsletter Apptopia Insight. To receive insights like this weekly, sign up here.
- Deceleration in DAU growth for BMBL/MTCH…but perhaps not that bad?
- Acceleration in DAU growth for GRND…but perhaps not that good?
- MTCH Investor Day – female engagement improves; Hinge cross-app rises
- BMBL – cross-app usage story is concerning
Kelly Clarkson has a message for all the dating app users out there:
It just wasn’t the same
Alone on Christmas day
Presents, what a beautiful sight
Don’t mean a thing if you ain’t holding me tight
You’re all that I need
Underneath the treeHowever, they seem not to be listening. DAU growth on a YoY basis is weakening almost across the board these past few weeks:
Usually a trend like this presents some risk for meeting consensus expectations. However, check out the YoY DAU growth trend vs consensus for Bumble payers and Tinder payers below – they are mostly tracking inline with consensus, if not a little better if you squint:
YouTube-TikTok cross-app usage
Tinder Payers (teal line) vs Tinder DAUs (blue line) – YoY Growth
Acceleration in DAU growth for GRND…but perhaps not that good?
Meanwhile, as we saw above, Grindr is actually seeing YoY growth pick up on a weekly basis. However, that is not enough compared to market expectations, suggesting Grindr could be on a path for an earnings miss:
MTCH Investor Day – female engagement improves; Hinge cross-app rises
Checking in on MTCH’s downbeat investor day, we are currently forecasting an inline quarter for Tinder Payers. However, MTCH’s presentation brought a lot of negativity to the stock. We decided to evaluate two points they made in the presentation: 1) Are Hinge users also heavy users of Tinder (in the presentation they said 39% of Hinge users are active on Tinder)?; 2) Are females more engaged with Tinder (in the presentation they showed that women were matching more)?
The first chart below shows the percentage of Hinge users who also use Tinder. Apptopia data shows that 40% of Hinge users also Tinder, inline with MTCH’s presentation. However, this is a pretty normal level over the past two years and, if anything, is slightly lower than it was in early 2023.
This next chart shows the opposite relationship – the percentage of Tinder users who use Hinge. While this percentage is still low (18%), it has been on the rise. This increase makes sense given how well Hinge has grown over the past two years.
Bumble – cross-app usage story is concerning
In our exploration of cross-app usage of Hinge and Tinder, we noticed some concerning trends at Bumble. While 4Q is shaping up well, we observed that Bumble users are also using Tinder and Hinge more frequently. The percentage of Bumble users who use Hinge rose from 22% at the beginning of 2023 to 29% as of November 2024. Over that same timeframe, the percentage of Bumble users who use Tinder rose from 39% to 44%. This negative development on competitive dynamics for Bumble signals yet another headwind for the app.
