This was first published December 3, in our weekly newsletter Apptopia Insight. To receive insights like this weekly, sign up here.
- DoorDash (DASH) – making everyone else look bad
- Uber (UBER) – the app being made to look bad
- Lyft (LYFT) – things are changing fast…
- Instacart (CART) – special review
With two months of 3Q gone and Thanksgiving behind us, now is a great time to check in and see how different sectors are performing QTD. Today we will highlight ride hailing and food delivery. This sector is interesting right now as it has a winner, a loser, and two question marks so far this quarter.
Below is a table showing the YoY growth rates for DAUs for both the consumer apps and the driver apps. For our analysis, we like to focus on the driver apps as activity on those apps are more likely to be tied to an actual delivery.
Ride Hailing and Food Delivery – DAUs YoY Growth – Weekly
DASH – making everyone else look badWhile growth rates are strong across the board in the table above, DoorDash’s YoY growth rates put the rest to shame. The Dasher app’s lowest YoY growth rate since the beginning of September is 32.7%. Despite the last week of November containing Thanksgiving, the Dasher app still grew DAUs 44%. At this point in the quarter, our data is pointing to a slightly above consensus quarter:
UBER – the app being made to look bad
After last quarter’s earnings miss, UBER still has not gotten back on track. While it is not a huge surprise to see Uber Eats lagging behind its peers in the table above, the Uber Driver app is also struggling to grow. Half of the weeks this quarter have seen YoY growth rates in the mid-single digits. This leads to a quarter that looks to be growing slower than what consensus expects – note the difference in the slopes of the lines below.
LYFT – things are changing fast…
If we had written this newsletter two weeks ago, we would have had a different story to tell on LYFT. However, the Lyft Driver app has experienced a strong acceleration in DAUs the past two weeks, bringing our data essentially in line with consensus. How it performs over the next month will be key to a miss or beat in 4Q.
CART – special review
Our data last quarter did not catch the strong acceleration in CART’s GTV. To put that in perspective, below we are showing almost four years of our data versus CART’s reported GTV. There are only two quarters where our data got the direction wrong, 2Q22 and 3Q24. Hence, the long-term relationship remains strong. However, you can see why we have some concern with 4Q – our data is once again pointing to a big miss. In fact, our data is showing a sequential decline in DAUs for the Shopper app in 4Q, whereas GTV almost always rises sequentially in 4Q. As a result, my takeaway is that you should be cautious about CART’s 4Q, but take it with a grain of salt.
