This was first published November 26, in our weekly newsletter Apptopia Insight. To receive insights like this weekly, sign up here.
- Coinbase (COIN) is doing even better than you think
- DraftKings (DKNG) app data is strong QTD – which is only inline with consensus
- Duolingo (DUOL) trends have weakened after an exceptional September
- SoFi (SOFI) app data supports the stock movement QTD
- Block (SQ) – Cash App has been decelerating of late
Four weeks ago we wrote our earnings previews ahead of 3Q. We had a hit rate of 76% which is inline with our historical level of accuracy. Four of the stocks we hit on were COIN, DKNG, DUOL, and SOFI. In each case, the stock price moved in the same direction as the beat/miss to consensus that we previewed. Please let us know if you want our Earnings Review where we examine how we did and how things are going mid-quarter.
In that vein, here are updates on all four as we get farther into 4Q, plus a bonus update on Cash App as recent trends have turned negative.
COIN – doing even better than you think
Apptopia’s downloads metric continues to provide a good signal when tracking Coinbase’s consumer trading volume, and it correctly pointed to lower-than-expected consumer trading volume in 3Q24. However, that trend has reversed and app downloads have spiked post-election – probably not a total surprise, but probably better than you think. This spike these past couple of weeks in Coinbase app downloads suggests consumer trading volume is tracking ahead of consensus.
DKNG – app data is strong QTD – which is only inline with consensus
Apptopia’s daily active user metric tracks closely with DraftKings’s reported Monthly Unique Players, and in 3Q pointed to a beat (though the beat turned out even better than our data suggested). Consensus increased their 4Q estimates as a result. Despite this challenging bar for the company to clear, app data suggests that DraftKings is well on its way to meeting it:
DUOL – trends have weakened after an exceptional September
Duolingo’s stock has been hitting new highs after reporting better-than-expected earnings. However, Apptopia’s DAU metric is showing a growth slowdown after what appears to be a bit of an outlier in September. Unless the company pulls off another strong month in December, Duolingo is on track to disappoint the market.
SOFI – app data supports the stock movement QTD
SoFi’s app downloads look just like the stock price of late. Apptopia’s downloads data on the SoFi app have a high correlation with SoFi’s reported Originations Volume and correctly predicted the beat in 3Q. That growth is continuing in 4Q, with November in particular showing an acceleration.
SQ – Cash App has been decelerating of late
While we did not preview SQ for 3Q, historically our MAU data has captured the YoY growth trend in Cash App’s revenue ex-Bitcoin. Looking at app data for the past few weeks on Cash App, there is reason for concern as new users (downloads) continue to show negative YoY growth, and we are starting to see decelerating YoY growth of MAUs.
